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Weekly Market Pulse: Perspective
There has been a lot of angst over the last couple of weeks about a potential banking crisis. There have been 4 failures so far: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. The...
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Weekly Market Pulse: What’s Wrong With T-bills?
The first quarter has come to a close and things have changed a lot…and not very much at all. Expectations coming into the year were that rates would peak in the spring at around 5% and then fall in...
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Weekly Market Pulse: History Lessons
One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we’ve had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Correction?
It appears we have started the third correction in stocks since the bottom in October of last year. The first one was in December and saw the S&P 500 fall about 8% from peak to trough. The second...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half
The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023. Growth stocks...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Again
There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn’t kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers – former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News
The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing,...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Prophets of Doom
I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we’d be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest...
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Macro: Inflation — High frequencies and crude keep Powell up at night
If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that’s ok, the world doesn’t work in perfectly smooth arcs and...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Dark Matter
It’s the residual of all the stuff we can’t explain. It’s not that our models are wrong, it’s the dark matter that’s out there. – Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the “term premium” in long...
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